Australian House Price Downturn We Had to Have - RBA, Tax Policy & Wealth Effect
- E71
- 18:24
- May 22nd 2026
Paul Keating had the recession we had to have. Now, forty years later, are Australian homeowners staring down the housing correction we had to have?
In this episode of Pizz-Spective, we pull apart the data, the history and the economics behind Australia's cooling property market and ask whether what's coming is a manageable blip or something more consequential.
We start with Cotality's Chart of the Month, which maps every capital city housing downturn over the past four decades. Ten corrections. Ten different stories. And some striking patterns about what causes them, how deep they go, and how fast they recover.
Then we turn to RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, who this week put the housing market squarely in the central bank's sights, warning that three interest rate hikes in 2026, combined with the Albanese government's landmark negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, could compound in ways the property market hasn't seen before. With states potentially facing a $9 billion stamp duty shortfall, the ripple effects go well beyond Sydney auction clearance rates.
Finally, we dig into one of the most important and most under appreciated pieces of RBA research in recent years. When house prices fall, what actually happens to the economy? How does housing wealth compare to share market wealth in driving what Australians spend? And with 55.8 cents of every dollar of household wealth sitting in residential real estate, just how exposed is the Australian consumer to what happens next in the property market?
The answers, drawn from decades of data, might surprise you.
This episode draws on Cotality's May 2026 Monthly Housing Chart Pack, RBA research bulletin "Wealth and Consumption" by May, Nodari and Rees, and reporting on RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's comments at the Bloomberg investor forum, Sydney, May 2026.
Pizz-Spective is an independent economics and property commentary podcast. Nothing in this episode constitutes financial advice.
Mont Wealth - "Pizz-Spectives" - Investing & Wealth Creation Strategies
Mont Wealth Advisors founder Rob Pizzichetta offers his "Pizz-Spectives" covering a range of subjects from investment and superannuation strategies, interviews with top fund managers, and discussing the latest investment and economic trends.
Mont Wealth Advisors we specialise in Financial Planning & Investment Helping You Achieve Your Wealth Goals.
We work collaboratively with your tax advisor to optimise your financial strategy, ensuring your plan aligns seamlessly across all areas.
We discuss what's important to you, providing estate planning guidance to secure your legacy.
We undertake comprehensive insurance reviews for effective risk management.
And we review your mortgage to guarantee you have the best possible terms on the market.
While our guidance and insights and perspectives are general in nature, i.e. not taking your personal circumstances into consideration, we recommend you seek financial advice to help you make informed decisions on your path to being financially comfortable. Anyone acting on this advice without seeking financial advice does so at their own risk.