Will 2026 Be Venture Capital’s Best Ever Year?
- S2E78
- 39:41
- January 13th 2026
A seed-stage fund gets 10 markups… and a YC company hits a 4.5x in 9 months.
That’s the vibe heading into 2026. Speed is up, liquidity is thawing, and AI is compressing timelines across YC and the broader venture market.
In this episode of The Lobster Talks, we recap Lobster Capital’s breakout 2025, unpack why seed → Series A is getting cut in half, and lay out the sharpest 2026 prediction: the liquidity cycle is coming back… via IPOs, M&A, secondaries, and “creative” acquihires. We also dig into the counter-trend: as AI floods everything, founders are building real-world, tangible products that pull people off screens… Powered by AI, Not anti-AI.
What you’ll learn in this episode:
- Why seed → Series A is moving from 18–24 months to ~9 months in top YC companies
- How a YC-backed company can go 0 → $10M ARR in ~14 months and keep growing 40% MoM
- Why DPI + liquidity is the only KPI LPs ultimately care about
- The new playbook: VC + PE strategies converging as AI makes roll-ups and efficiency leaps inevitable
- The “opposite reaction” to AI: hardware + real-life communities powered by AI agents
- What’s showing up in Winter 2026: robotics, hardware, and a surprising wave of space tech
📌 Watch now and subscribe for more smart, fast, founder-first interviews.
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction and Cold Open
00:46 Welcome to The Lobster Talks
01:16 Recap of 2025 Achievements
02:19 Series A Success and Future Predictions
07:50 The Importance of Liquidity in VC
09:35 AI's Transformational Impact
18:58 The Role of YC and Future Outlook
21:45 AI Note Taker: A Physical Product in 2026
22:36 Digital Detox: Reconnecting with the Real World
23:59 Lobster Capital's Portfolio: RealRoots and Sunflower
28:15 The Rise of Robotics and Space Tech in 2026
31:39 YC's Moonshot Investments and Future Prospects
34:27 Reflections on YC's Evolution and Success
37:40 Upcoming YC Demo Day and New Group Partners
39:21 Conclusion and Future Episodes
🎧 Listen on the go:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1u1JyRKH8JYFjhBkvTUOAP
Apple: https://apple.co/4cZ8RMm
My other YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@lobstercap
The Lobster Talks Podcast by Lobster Capital
Feast into the Startup Hustle with The Lobster Talks Podcast by Lobster Capital! Craving the real deal on starting and scaling a business?
The Lobster Talks Podcast by Lobster Capital serves up raw, unscripted conversations with experienced founders who've been there, done that (and gotten the investor backing!).
Join us as we dissect the triumphs and trials of the entrepreneurial journey, peeling back the layers to reveal the nitty-gritty of building a startup from the ground up. Our guests share their unfiltered insights, hard-won lessons, and practical tips to help you navigate the exciting (and sometimes messy) world of startups.
Subscribe now and get ready to hear honest, unfiltered stories from seasoned founders, uncover valuable insights and actionable tips for your startup journey, gain inspiration from those who've successfully navigated the fundraising game and join a community of passionate entrepreneurs eager to learn and grow.