Solar has become the world's fastest-growing source of new power generation, but record deployment has not translated into falling global emissions at the pace many expected. In this episode of Watt Matters, Ana sits down with Michelle Davis, Head of Global Solar at Wood Mackenzie, to unpack one of the biggest paradoxes in the energy transition: if solar is winning, why does decarbonization still feel so difficult?
Drawing on global market data and years of forecasting experience, Michelle explores the forces shaping solar's next chapter. From grid constraints and transmission bottlenecks to AI-driven electricity demand, data center growth, project quality concerns, and the surprising rise of balcony solar in Europe, this conversation goes beyond deployment numbers to examine the systems that ultimately determine whether clean energy can deliver on its promise.
Takeaways
* Why Wood Mackenzie intentionally takes a conservative approach to forecasting
* The solar market trends most analysts underestimated
* Why record solar deployment has not yet translated into rapid emissions reductions
* How transmission and interconnection delays are slowing progress
* The growing disconnect between public support for solar and local project opposition
* Why balcony solar is expanding faster than expected in Europe
* The risks that cost pressure creates for module and project quality
* How AI and data centers are reshaping electricity demand forecasts
* Why new gas generation is still growing alongside renewables
* The single infrastructure investment that could unlock the next phase of solar growth
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and the responsibility of forecasting
04:35 Mentorship, women in energy, and financial independence
08:12 Solar's paradox: record growth and record emissions
13:01 What the data says versus industry narratives
16:44 The rise of balcony solar in Europe
21:29 Where the industry may be overconfident
24:22 AI, data centers, and exploding electricity demand
29:54 Does the decarbonization math still work?
33:40 Interconnection queues and permitting challenges
36:19 Solar's limits in a high-demand future
39:14 The most overlooked solution: transmission
To learn more about building the future of large-scale solar and how PVcase can help, head to www.pvcase.com
Watt Matters by PVcase
At PVcase, we’re on a mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
That’s why we created the Watt Matters podcast - a must-listen series for developers, engineers, analysts, and decision makers shaping the future of large-scale solar.
Each episode tackles the tough realities behind why so many solar projects stall - and what we can do to fix it.
We bring together industry leaders to share strategic insights, practical tools, and real-world experiences.
Learn more at https://www.pvcase.com/